SIMULASI MONTE CARLO BERBASIS PYTHON UNTUK ESTIMASI SUMBER DAYA PANAS BUMI DENGAN METODE VOLUMETRIK DI LAPANGAN Z
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53026/prosidingsntem.v5i1.734Keywords:
Simulasi Monte Carlo, Python, Energi Panas Bumi, Volumetric Method, Analisis SensitivitasAbstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperkirakan adanya potensi panas bumi di Lapangan Z menggunakan metode voluetrik yang dilakukan dengan menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo yang berbasis dengan Python.Simulasi ini bertujuan untuk pendekatan yang mengatasi ketidakpastian dari parameter seperti luas area, ketebalan, porositas, densitas batuan, dan recovery factor. Simulasi dijalankan sebanyak 200.000 iterasi menggunakan library Python seperti Gppeval, NumPy, Pandas, dan Plotly. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan estimasi daya listrik dengan nilai probabilistik P10 sebesar 45 MWe, P50 sekitar 69-70 MWe, dan P90 mencapai 102 MWe. Analisis sensitivitas mengidentifikasi bahwa luas area, ketebalan, dan recovery factor merupakan parameter yang paling berpengaruh terhadap variasi hasil estimasi daya. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan probabilistik menghasilkan estimasi yang lebih realistis dibandingkan metode deterministik dan dapat menjadi dasar dalam pengambilan keputusan pengembangan lapangan panas bumi di masa mendatang.
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