PERBANDINGAN METODE VOLUMETRIK DAN MONTE CARLO UNTUK ESTIMASI POTENSI PANAS BUMI DI LAPANGAN X
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53026/prosidingsntem.v5i1.704Keywords:
Geothermal, Metode Volumetrik, Metode Monte CarloAbstract
Indonesia memiliki potensi energi panas bumi yang sangat besar, mencapai 40% dari cadangan global. Estimasi potensi yang akurat sangat penting untuk perencanaan pengembangan lapangan geotermal. Penelitian ini membandingkan metode volumetrik deterministik dengan metode Monte Carlo probabilistik dalam mengestimasi potensi pembangkitan listrik Panas Bumi di lapangan X, Jawa Barat. Metode volumetrik menghitung energi tersimpan menggunakan parameter tunggal dari data geosains (luas area, ketebalan reservoir, temperatur, porositas, dan densitas), sedangkan metode Monte Carlo memodelkan ketidakpastian melalui 20.000 simulasi dengan variabel input mengikuti distribusi probabilitas (uniform, triangular, dan normal). Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan metode volumetrik menghasilkan estimasi 55,55 MWe (selisih 14,54% dari data resmi KESDM 65 MWe), sementara metode Monte Carlo menghasilkan nilai median (P50) 65,19 MWe memberikan selisih hanya 0,03% dari data KESDM dengan rentang ketidakpastian 37,61–79,86 MWe (P90–P10). Metode Monte Carlo terbukti lebih representatif karena mampu mengkuantifikasi ketidakpastian dan memberikan rentang kepercayaan estimasi, sehingga lebih andal untuk evaluasi risiko dan pengambilan keputusan investasi pengembangan lapangan geotermal.
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