ANALISIS KINERJA OPERASIONAL DAN STRATEGI OPTIMASI PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK TENAGA PANAS BUMI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53026/prosidingsntem.v5i1.665Keywords:
Pembangkit panas bumi, Kinerja operasional, Optimasi, Pemantauan berkelanjutan, Analisis statistikAbstract
Pembangkit panas bumi skala kecil berperan penting dalam penyediaan energi terbarukan di Indonesia, namun data kinerjanya masih terbatas. Penelitian ini menganalisis data operasional pembangkit 15 MW single-flash di Jawa Barat selama Oktober 2024 dengan 93 catatan pengamatan menggunakan metode statistik deskriptif, analisis korelasi pearson, regresi linear, dan time-series analysis. Data dikumpulkan tiga kali sehari dari DCS mencakup parameter pembangkitan listrik (MW Gross, MW Nett), kondisi uap (Flow Steam, Pressure Header, Temperature Header), dan kontrol turbin (MCV position). Hasil menunjukkan pembangkitan daya bervariasi 11,87-15,87 MW dengan rata-rata 13,68 MW (capacity factor 91,2%), efisiensi netto 90,6%, dan konsumsi beban internal 9,4%. Analisis korelasi mengungkapkan hubungan sangat kuat antara aliran uap dan daya output (r=0,94, R²=0,884), dimana setiap kenaikan 1 kg/s menghasilkan tambahan 0,39 MW. Studi mengidentifikasi tiga fase operasional berbeda: fase stabil baseline (13,76±0,22 MW), peningkatan kinerja +5,2% (14,48±0,57 MW), dan penurunan kinerja -15,6% (12,22±0,26 MW) akibat degradasi aliran uap. Benchmarking menunjukkan kinerja kompetitif dalam rentang industri 88-92% untuk efisiensi dan 85-95% untuk capacity factor. Analisis kelayakan ekonomi menggunakan metode Net Present Value (NPV) dengan discount rate 10% dan periode 20 tahun menunjukkan bahwa strategi optimasi tiga-fase yang diusulkan dapat meningkatkan output 3,2-5,6 MW (25-35%) dengan investasi bertahap $3,5-5,9M, menghasilkan NPV $13-24M dan IRR 18-120%. Temuan memberikan acuan praktis berbasis data empiris untuk operasi dan optimasi pembangkit panas bumi skala kecil di Indonesia.
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